By Stephen O'DohertyMonday 23 Apr 2018Open House InterviewsNewsReading Time: 2 minutes
Listen: Professor John Blaxland of ANU in conversation with Stephen O’Doherty
When the North and South Korean leaders sit down for historic talks this week will they take the first tangible steps towards an end to the decades-old Korean War, or will it escalate tensions?
There are a “multitude of options” for the outcomes of the “once-in-a-lifetime” talks according to Professor John Blaxland, Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University.
The upcoming Summit is designed to lead to a further meeting involving US President Donald Trump whose administration has brokered the talks.
In an interview with Open House John Blaxland has warned that the stakes are very high.
“[Donald Trump] is the man man behind the Art of the Deal and his brinkmanship is certainly bringing people to the table to negotiate a deal. But when you play a game of brinkmanship like this, when the stakes are high, you can win big or you can lose big. That’s the most worrying thing at the moment. If this goes pear shaped it could end up in the situation deteriorating quite rapidly”, Prof Baxland told Open House.
“Here’s hoping and praying that doesn’t happen”.
A seasoned expert on the North Korean regime, Professor Blaxland has questioned whether the US team is being outmanoeuvred in the run-up to the summit by the North Korean leader’s unilateral concession of a cease in nuclear testing – something which had in any case run its present course.
“Trump does not have a team of seasoned Korea watchers close by to provide him that kind of support that you would expect a President to have going into this once-in-a-lifetime negotiation with a very cunning political operative in Kim Jong-un”, he said.
And then there’s Syria
Meanwhile it appears that evidence confirming chemical attacks by the Syrian regime will be hard to find.
Professor Blaxland nevertheless says that US and its allies were right to conduct tactical strikes against chemical weapons facilities, strikes he calls the “normative response” to a build up or use of chemical weapons. And, he says these events may result in bringing matters to a head.
“My hope is that the crisis that we’ve seen unfold may actually have a cathartic effect to generate a space – an opening – for some kind of reconciliation whereby the US, Russia and the other players can find a way for Syria to move beyond violence to a resolution of the political challenge they face with some kind of federal structure.”
He has warned however that this will be hard if the US pulls out of the region. The Trump administration has promised a pull out but not named a date, and observers like John Blaxland say this would lead to a very adverse outcome.
Listen to our conversation with Professor Blaxland by clicking the link above.